Revisiting the Unit Root Hypothesis and Structural Break: Asia and Emerging Economies Foreign Exchange Markets

The Influence of Structural Changes in Volatility on Shock Transmission and Volatility Spillover among Iranian Gold and Foreign Exchange Markets

Time and foreign exchange markets

The definition of time is still an open question when one deals with high frequency time series. If time is simply the calendar time, prices can be modeled as continuous random processes and values resulting from transactions or given quotes are discrete samples of this underlying dynamics. On the contrary, if one takes the business time point of view, price dynamics is a discrete random proces...

Illusory profitability of technical analysis in emerging foreign exchange markets

Weconduct an extensive examination of the profitability of technical analysis in ten emerging foreign exchange markets. Studying 25,988 trading strategies for emerging foreign exchangemarkets, we find that the best rules can sometimes generate an annualmean excess return of more than 30%. Based on standard tests, we find hundreds to thousands of seemingly significant profitable strategies. Howe...

Timing Foreign Exchange Markets

Priced level, slope, and volatility risk factors recently proposed in the finance literature help explain long-standing puzzles related to the cross-section of carry trade returns. In this paper, we examine whether the information contained in these global factors allows foreign exchange market speculators in individual currencies to successfully time the direction of their carry trades, both w...

Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break

In this paper, we propose a minimum LM unit root test that endogenously determines a structural break in intercept and trend. Critical values are provided, and size and power properties are compared to the endogenous one-break unit root test of Zivot and Andrews (1992). Nunes, Newbold, and Kuan (1997) and Lee and Strazicich (2001) previously demonstrated that the Zivot and Andrews test exhibits...